Ten years after the Paris Agreement, the world has seen significant shifts in climate action. Despite one country’s attempt to withdraw and a previous administration’s efforts to boost fossil fuels, investments in clean energy have doubled. Solar capacity has more than doubled, electric vehicle sales have surged, and wind power has increased by nearly 50%. This progress shows that even with setbacks, the global move towards renewable energy is strong and continues to grow.
The Myth of “Climate Realism”
The fossil fuel industry often pushes a narrative called "climate realism." They claim that the commitments made in Paris are unrealistic and that we should give up on reducing fossil fuel burning. Instead, they suggest focusing almost exclusively on adapting to climate change. While adaptation is important, it shouldn’t replace efforts to address the main cause of the crisis: fossil fuel emissions.
According to "climate realism," energy transitions have always been slow, so we shouldn’t expect to move faster now, even with human civilization at risk. They also argue that solving the climate crisis is less important than other goals, like increasing energy access in developing countries, which they believe should be done by burning more fossil fuels. They also say it’s not practical to stop using the sky as an open sewer for emissions.
Key Takeaways
- Ignoring the Refugee Crisis: Climate scientists warn of one to two billion climate refugees by 2050. Is it realistic to ignore this massive displacement and suffering?
- Economic Damage: The global economy faces devastating losses. Entire regions are becoming uninsurable, and we could lose trillions of dollars in property value. Deloitte estimates a $178 trillion cost to the global economy over the next half-century if we don’t act, but a $43 trillion gain if we do.
- Accelerating Climate Crisis: Greenland is losing 30 million tons of ice every hour, and sea levels are rising faster. Extreme weather events are becoming more common, costing trillions in damages. Droughts, wildfires, and air pollution are worsening, impacting health and livelihoods.
- Health Impacts: The World Health Organization calls climate change the biggest health threat to humanity. Air pollution from fossil fuels causes nearly nine million deaths annually. "Cancer Alley" in Louisiana, for example, shows how pollution leads to extremely high cancer rates in certain communities.
- Ocean Acidification and Biodiversity Loss: Oceans are 30% more acidic than before the Industrial Revolution, and 93% of all heat has been absorbed by them. This threatens coral reefs and fish species. Up to 60% of all fish species are at high risk, and 50% of all living species on Earth are in danger of extinction.
- Freshwater Scarcity: 40% of the world already faces water scarcity. Glaciers are melting rapidly, threatening water supplies for a quarter of the world’s population. Cities like Bangalore are already experiencing severe water shortages.
- Food Crisis: Scientists predict a looming food crisis. Is it realistic to ignore this to avoid reducing fossil fuel emissions?
The Unstoppable Rise of Renewables
The fossil fuel industry ignores the amazing progress and cost reductions in renewable energy. Why? Because cheaper, cleaner alternatives that create many jobs threaten their business models. They have consistently been wrong in their predictions.
For example, in the year of the Paris Agreement, ExxonMobil predicted 840 gigawatts of solar capacity by 2040. We have already tripled that number today. OPEC also predicted minimal electric vehicle sales, but they have increased 34 times since the Paris Agreement. In China, 52% of new car sales are now electric vehicles, and this is expected to reach 82% within five years. OPEC also thought solar wouldn’t be cost-competitive, but it’s now the cheapest source of electricity in history.
Oxford University studied 3,000 past predictions and found that the actual cost reduction for clean energy technologies was 15% per year, much faster than the predicted 2.6%. The International Energy Agency’s past predictions for solar power have been consistently underestimated compared to what actually happened. Since 2015, the world has installed twice as much solar power as all fossil fuels combined. Solar is the top fuel source winner.
Overcoming Obstacles
Despite this progress, we are still moving too slowly to meet the Paris Agreement goals. The biggest reason for this is the strong opposition to policies that would speed up the transition away from fossil fuels. The fossil fuel industry uses various tactics to distract the public and promote false solutions like carbon capture and plastic recycling. They are better at capturing politicians than emissions.
They employ politicians and policymakers to confuse the public. For example, some argue that carbon capture should be the focus, even though it’s largely a distraction. As Upton Sinclair said, "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it."
Fossil fuel companies also push for taxpayer subsidies, effectively making taxpayers fund the destruction of humanity’s future. If these subsidies were removed, the International Monetary Fund estimates $4.4 trillion in savings, which is exactly what’s needed to fund the renewable energy transition. This would also save lives, reduce emissions by a third in five years, and decrease income inequality.
The Need for Financial Reform
It’s not realistic to ignore the urgent need to reform the global financial system to properly invest in the climate crisis. Most funding comes from private sources, but developing countries aren’t getting their fair share. This is a problem because 100% of the projected increase in emissions will come from developing countries. They receive less than 19% of global clean energy funding, while nearly 50% of the money goes to more fossil fuels.
For example, the US state of Florida alone has more solar panels than the entire continent of Africa, even though Africa has 60% of the world’s best solar resources. Instead of funding actual energy access through renewables, there’s a rush to fund fossil fuel projects in Africa for export, not for the African people. Africa’s solar and wind potential is 400 times greater than its fossil fuel potential. Every African country could be 100% powered by renewables using less than 1% of its land.
The Future is Renewable
Renewable energy sources like solar and wind don’t have fuel supply risks or price volatility. They have no annual fuel cost. This transition also creates three times more jobs per dollar spent compared to fossil fuels. The fossil fuel industry also ignores that methane is as bad as coal when leaks are considered, and leaks are everywhere. They lobby against legislation to deal with methane leaks because it would cost them money.
So, what’s behind this "climate realism" theory? Perhaps they are panicking about losing their markets. The International Energy Agency predicts that all fossil fuels will peak in the next few years. Since the Paris Agreement, there has been a complete shift in investment towards renewables, and emissions may have already peaked in many sectors. Last year, 93% of all new electricity installed worldwide was renewable, mostly solar.
The International Energy Agency has long stated that we have all the technologies and proven deployment models to cut emissions by 50% this decade and a clear path for the other 50%. Twenty years ago, it took a full year to install a gigawatt of solar power. Now, it takes 15 hours and is still decreasing. The "climate realists" are wrong about our ability to make the necessary changes to save our future. As Abraham Lincoln said, "The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew."
We have everything we need. People are demanding change. The only thing they say might be in short supply is political will. But remember, political will is itself a renewable resource. Let’s go out there and renew it.
